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Why smart people decide badly

Confirmation bias, anchoring, sunk costs and more: the mental shortcuts that trip up good decisions, and how to catch them.

16 cards·by braineos-team
decision-makingpsychologycritical-thinking
Study this deckPlay Tower Defense
Confirmation bias
Noticing and trusting what fits what you already believe, and brushing off what doesn't.
Anchoring
Leaning too hard on the first number you hear, like a starting price, when you judge what's fair.
Sunk cost fallacy
Sticking with something because of what you've already put in, not what it will give you from here.
Availability heuristic
Judging how likely something is by how easily examples come to mind. Vivid news feels common.
Loss aversion
Losing something stings more than gaining the same thing pleases, so we work hard to avoid losses.
Framing effect
Choosing differently depending on how the same facts are worded.
Hindsight bias
Feeling, after the fact, that you knew it would happen all along.
Planning fallacy
Expecting a task to take less time than it will, even when similar tasks ran over before.
You're two hours into a dull film and keep watching because "I've come this far." What's this?
  1. Anchoring
  2. ✓ Sunk cost fallacy
  3. Hindsight bias
  4. Halo effect
A jacket says "was $300, now $150", and $150 suddenly feels like a bargain. What's at work?
  1. ✓ Anchoring
  2. Confirmation bias
  3. Planning fallacy
  4. Availability heuristic
After a plane crash is all over the news, flying feels more dangerous than driving. What's at work?
  1. Sunk cost fallacy
  2. Framing effect
  3. ✓ Availability heuristic
  4. Halo effect
You only read the reviews that praise the phone you already picked. What's this?
  1. Anchoring
  2. Planning fallacy
  3. Hindsight bias
  4. ✓ Confirmation bias
Someone good-looking is assumed to be kind and clever too. What's this called?
  1. ✓ Halo effect
  2. Loss aversion
  3. Anchoring
  4. Sunk cost fallacy
A colleague is late and you think "they're careless", but when you're late it's the traffic. What's this?
  1. Framing effect
  2. ✓ Fundamental attribution error
  3. Availability heuristic
  4. Planning fallacy
The same yogurt sells better labelled "90% fat-free" than "10% fat". What's at work?
  1. Hindsight bias
  2. Confirmation bias
  3. ✓ Framing effect
  4. Sunk cost fallacy
Your "three-week" project took two months, again. What's this called?
  1. Hindsight bias
  2. Halo effect
  3. Confirmation bias
  4. ✓ Planning fallacy